Thank you Angela!!

The German Chancellor's Hardline Stance on the Greek Crisis might force Greek Society to change...

The crisis that Greece is facing today is due to many factors. One would be foolish to insist exclusively on the role of, say, the Hedge Funds, while ignoring the role of ratings awarded by International Risk Asserors…Or to underline only the role of the EU and the lack of solidarity of this institution, and not point out the damage that the strong Euro has done to tourism-oriented economies as is the Greek one. And lastly but not leastly it would be a great error to leave out the inherent problems of Greek Society from an analysis of the current situation.

Thus, when trying to understand what has happened here we must note that the new Greek government, announced that the country’s public debt was almost twice the amount that had been claimed by the previous government. In so doing it hoped to achieve a number of things: By giving an inflated number it could, the following year claim the rewards of having managed to deflate it! It was also, they thought, a useful tool for internal politics, as they could, as is traditional in Greek politics, claim to have inherited “burn land” from their predecessors. Finally it must not be forgotten that what they said is in an extent true: Maybe the final numbers where exaggerated, but certainly the conservatives had lied when they had declared that the public debt in Greece slightly exceeded 6% of the GNP…

However now other “forces” come into play, leaping at the opportunity: On the one hand that European Commission, which, in its wisdom, has decided that the “Sacred Number” that must not be surpassed when talking of Public debt to GNP ratio is 3 (percent), started screaming that the Greeks had lied (again) about the (sacred) numbers, while the big players (such as Germany) came down like a ton of bricks on Greece, who was tarnishing the image of the (sacred) Euro, and menacing its strength, giving little consideration that the economic policy that has been followed in the last period aimed at preserving a strong Euro was one of the factors that was destroying the “Southern” Economies: German Tourists are unlikely to come to Greece to spend their Euros, when they can get much the same (Sea – Sex – and Sun) outside the Eurozone, where their Euro could buy a lot more!

That the new Iron Lady of Germany (why do Ladies become “Iron” when they are hardliners in politics, while the Gents don’t?), Angela Merkel, insisted that Greece “tidied up its act” without European is easily explainable in terms of internal German politics: It is easy fodder for German Nationalist feeling who have “been paying for the lazy and corrupt Southerners for too long”, ahead of important upcoming regional elections. The strong Euro policy is also mainly in the interests of Germany, the “industrial powerhouse of Europe”… Of course little is said in Germany both on the matters of a. German reconstruction after the Second World War (which led, among other things, to Germany never paying back the “forced loan” that Nazi Germany had imposed on Greece, or a number of payments due for damages done by Germany either to Greece as a country or to Greeks as individuals) and b. of European aid for the process of German Reunification…

And yet…recently the EU Commission released a report about “stability and convergence programs of fourteen EU members” (http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/10/288) in which (shock! horror!) it is clearly stated that “[in Germany] the general government deficit [is] 5½% of GDP in 2010…budgetary outcomes could turn out worse than projected, given (i) the lack of specific consolidation measures beyond 2010, (ii) the need to reconcile the possible implementation of announced tax cuts with fiscal retrenchment, and (iii) the fact that implementation of the new budgetary rule also at sub-federal level is not ensured.” Meaning a. that the Germans are also not respecting the number of the Holy Trinity as far as debt in their current budget is concerned and that they are, to put it politely, lying about what their figures will look like in the near future. If we followed Angelas’ example we should be screaming that they be burnt at the stake… The same report states that “[In France]… the assumptions underlying the programme scenario are assessed as rather optimistic and some expenditure-side measures are not specified.” Sounds like more figure-cooking going on here! “[In Italy]… The deficit and debt ratios could be higher than targeted…”, but they are just Southerners! “[In the Netherlands]… The debt ratio, which breached the 60% of GDP Treaty reference value in 2009, is set to increase substantially over the programme horizon.” Ah…They don’t seem to be respecting holy numbers either… “[In Austria]…the programme as the consolidation from 2011 onwards relies mostly on measures as yet unspecified.” Boil and bubble, cook and trouble! And finally “[In the UK]… the general government deficit reaching 12.7% of GDP in the financial year 2009/10.” Good grief! That’s worse than the Greeks! But that’s fine…they don’t use the Euro! “The fiscal strategy outlined in the United Kingdom's convergence programme does not foresee the correction of the excessive deficit by the fiscal year 2014/15, as recommended by the Council on 2 December 2009.”

And this concerns only the Government Debt and deficit, which seems to be the only concern of the European Union and not the Total External Debt of each country (i.e. the debt and deficit of the State plus the individual debts of the citizens). For as far as the Total Debt is concerned the Greek figures are not bad: Ireland is at 1200% of its GNP, the Netherlands at 380%, the UK at 370%, Belgium at 350%, Denmark 310%, Austria 275%, France 246%, Portugal 217%, Norway 207%, Finland 197%. Germany is at 189%, while Greece is (only) at 182%!

So what is the conclusion? That the Greeks are “naughty”, not because they cooked the figures – everybody does that! - but because they actually admitted it!

But the truth is dangerous as has often been said, and the admission that the Greek Economy is a mess made the tigers of “International Economy” in a most bloodthirsty and profit-making way on the “weak link of the Eurozone”. The Rating Houses debased Greece’s ratings twice in a week (an unprecedented move) which caused all the numbers to go berserk and, to put it simply, made money borrowing expensive for Greece…And from whom will Greece borrow expensively? That’s the best part: the same people who gave it negative ratings in the first place! And it goes without saying that the money that these institutions shall be lending is precisely the money that national governments (including Greece) had spent in recent years to save these same institutions from bankruptcy!

And what will Greece use this expensive money for? Buying stuff it does not need from…Germany, and France and the US…What exactly? Well, Angela, so obviously concerned about the state of the Greek Economy agreed – during negotiations with the Greek prime-minister precisely about the Greek debt – to sell Greece six spanking-new submarines! Evryone can see how that will help German Economy, but I am not quite sure about the aid is will be to the Greek debt…And Nikolas (Sarkozy) also in deep concern about his “friends and allies” the Greeks agreed to sell them six frigates…again in direct negotiations with the Greek PM concerning “a European help-package to save the Greek Economy”. I wonder how our friends and allies would react if Greece actually agreed with them and slashed back spending by not buying this stuff?

After these recent agreements the Greek PM made his way to the US for a talk with the American President. After his return to Europe the PM, who till then had been adamantly against borrowing from the International Monetary Fund, came out and declared that he was now considering that option: what had changed since his visit to the US? A likely scenario is that the US President, who effectively controls the IMF agreed to lend on better terms, as long as Greece bought a few (more) American Warplanes…This allowed the Greek PM to return to his European colleagues saying “either you offer me an even better deal, or I go to the IMF, which will undermine your precious Euro”…

And yet here me must pause and take a breath and those of us that are Greeks and/or live in Greece, we must excaim: “THANK YOU ANGELA!” Why? Because despite all the above the Greek Economy is in a mess also because a number of cancerous growths of Greek Society itself have never been addressed. These include – but are not limited to – a. corruption: All sectors and segments of public life in Greece are polluted by corruption: from the health sector, to tax collection, to administration to the workings of the private sector, to the juridical sector, to public works (we could mention the largest scandal of the last decades that involved the German SIEMENS corrupting politicians to be awarded contracts…). b. which is closely linked to the functioning of the political world of the country, which still works largely based on the principle of clientelism: vote for me and I will find a spot for you/your spouse/son, daughter…c. which two factors are at the root of most other problems of Greek society, such as tax-evasion, individualism and egoism when treating with others or with the State, total lack of faith in the institutions, a legal system that is full of useless and/or contradictory laws etc etc etc.

There is, then, some hope that this recent “crisis” and the way it is being treated by our “allies”, will activate at last some reflexes in Greek Society itself that will lead to a radical change of its working and its structure. By demonstrating the weakness of Greek society and Greek politics Angela may be lighting the fuse that will lead to the powder-keg of social change in Greece. Maybe politicians will finally be forced, under popular outcry, to change their mentality…

Not to mention that these circumstances may be used so as to create the opportunity to break radically with frozen positions of Greek External Policies, especially as far as our “enemies” are concerned: Under the cloak of “its our European allies that are forcing us” the Greek government could get the people to accept new directions in the country’s relations both with Turkey and even more easily with the (F.Y.) Republic of Macedonia, resolving a number of questions that under the name “National Questions” are in fact gaping wounds which drain the country of time, energy and resources…For it is precisely because of these “National Questions” that Greece wastes billions each year on the purchase of military hardware, which has played an important role in augmenting the country’s debt…

So let us cry “Thank you Angela!” hoping that Greek Society and leaders will indeed follow such a route and not choose the alternate route of isolation, easy Eurosceptism and Conspiracy-Theories that will lead it into the open arms of the extreme right…